When can we exit the lockdown and start to resume our lives?
Move from the brute force of a lockdown to more targeted and nuanced strategy.
Containment -> Mitigation -> containment
Population-based mitigation -> case-based mitigation
National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening – this report from former FDA director Scott Gottlieb (who is exerting more leadership than the vast preponderance of our elected and appointed officials) is getting lots of attention.
https://wapo.st/2JxO4m8 summary of aei
Strategy
- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/upshot/coronavirus-four-benchmarks-reopening.html
- https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_COVID-19-ZXJX9AR#COVID-19-treatments-and-vaccines_Lists-of-potential-treatments-vaccines-and-diagnostics-of-COVID-19-in-development
- https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/03/planning-end-coronavirus-pandemic-heres-how-reopen-america-column/5106378002/
- https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/coronavirus-economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248
- https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2007263
- https://medium.com/@curtis.yarvin/plan-a-for-the-coronavirus-7db3997490c1
- https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/
Re-opening Seattle
Seattle was one of the first places in the US to go into lockdown, so we may be able to one of the first exit. What will it take to exit the lockdown?
Likeely to be cautious
Others will follow.
When? Wuhan Jan 23 to – 70? days. Puts us into XXX
What are the metrics to watch and what has to be in place?
Multi-layered strategy
The viral funnel (source)
Uninfected/asymptomatic: masks, social distancing, vaccines, tests, tracing
Exposed: tests, tracing
Infected: isolation, drugs
Sick: hospitalization, therapeutics, PPE for MDs/nurses
Recovered: serology tests
Medical Developments
Testing – faster, cheaper, ubiquitous, random testing of asymptomatic people
Treatments – anti-viral, HCQ, red../Gilead
Serological tests
Vaccines
The COVID-19 App is Coming!
Use cases: contact tracking, quarantine enforcement/monitoring, symptom tracking, proof of immunity
- http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/3VyE_va0XzI/
- https://theintercept.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-covid-19-surveillance-privacy/
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-europe-turn-to-phone-tracking-strategies-to-halt-spread-of-coronavirus-11585906203
- https://twitter.com/lacker/status/1246106644733243397
- https://www.mobihealthnews.com/news/asia-pacific/singapore-government-launches-new-app-contact-tracing-combat-spread-covid-19
Tracking and Tracing
Nextstrain – https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240645003833345 contact tracing
Israel
MIT
Singapore
Pepp-pt.org
- https://qz.com/1825997/taiwan-phone-tracking-system-monitors-55000-under-coronavirus-quarantine/
- https://twitter.com/LucaFerrettiEvo/status/1245003600587350019
- Travel restrictions
- The COVID App is Coming
- https://www.city-journal.org/covid-19-and-technology
- http://ow.ly/YB3h30quA7K Lewis smell
- https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2007263?query=TOC
- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/coronavirus-data-privacy.html?referringSource=articleShare
- https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245700326914772993
- https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52135916
- https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/a-national-covid-19-surveillance-system-achieving-containment/
- http://dangrover.com/blog/2020/04/05/covid-in-ui.html
Travel Restrictions
https://www.businessinsider.com/locals-petition-to-close-cape-cod-bridge-to-prevent-fleers-2020-4
https://lifehacker.com/what-to-know-before-you-travel-across-state-lines-1842727165