Coronavirus Archive

Previous Updates

Updated: December 6, 6:40pm
1674 new cases in WA, 363 in KC. WA reports that today’s number includes up to 970 dupes AND is missing other new cases so “the overall impact is that reported case counts are likely lower than true case counts”. We’ll see if they get the reporting in order this week. No deaths reported due to the weekend.

Updated: December 5, 8:15pm
1861 new cases in WA, 324 in KC. WA says upwards of 500 dupes in their number AND it is incomplete. They’ve taken 200-400 cases out of the last 4-5 days. No deaths numbers today as a weekend.

Updated: December 4, 11:45pm
1990 new cases in WA, 758 in KC. They say upwards of 650 dupes in the WA number. They took about ~150 cases from the two previous days. Descent of the seven-day average curve is flattening after cresting. 25 new headline deaths and there is a note that they had 90+ other deaths come in that they’re not sure if COVID. Deaths curve continues upward at a pretty good 45 degree slope.

Updated: December 3, 11:45pm
WA reports 2448 new cases for Wednesday (with possible up to 1000 dupes), KC reports 362. They took out about 600 cases from Nov 23/24 and about 300 in more recent days, so I expect these numbers to keep coming down. The seven-day new cases curve has put in a peak on Nov 28 and is down about 10% since then. 50 new headline deaths (39 unattributed +1) but most of those were added back into April-July so haven’t impacted our recent curve much.

Updated: December 2, 6:15pm
WA reports 3319 new cases which would be second highest day, but they also report it could have as many as a thousand duplicates in it. They have pulled out about 300 cases per day back to Thanksgiving, so this number may also come down. As with deaths, daily numbers may be less useful and we need to look at how they revised over the subsequent week. 673 new cases in KC, which is about par for the course. 45 headline deaths, and with revisions now saying 30 deaths on Monday which I am sure is weekend lag but matches all time high from the very first spike at the end of March. The deaths curve continues its upward trajectory.

Updated: December 1, 9:30pm
2524 new cases in WA (biggest number in a week), 732 in KC for Monday. They estimate the WA number may include as many as 650 duplicates. They did take out 100-150 cases per day in the week before Thanksgiving. 33 new headline deaths. As they backfill the deaths number, our curve has been ticking up since mid October with another steeper inflection in the middle of November. We’re now above the peak seven-day average daily deaths from the second spike back in the first week of August.

Updated: November 30, 5:45pm
2345 new cases in WA, 666 in KC. Very limited backwards revisions so the great de-duping is still coming. Seven day average has fallen off a little, but suspect that is due to the holidays. Death (38 unattributed +1) reporting started again (none since last Tuesday) with 71 new deaths (which is below 12 a day). But the backfill shows our overall curve steepening over the last week and is now over 15 a day.

Updated: November 29, 5:15pm
2097 new cases in WA, 356 in KC. Suspect we’re still seeing holiday effect diminishing numbers. Deaths not reported for WA (but KC has the last two days which is irregular since they said state forced them to stop reporting on weekends). Will be interesting this coming week to see if we see a post holiday pop in both testing and further spread, as well as reductions in past cases from their planned “de-duplication” efforts.

Updated: November 28, 7:45pm
2473 new cases in WA on Friday, 481 in KC. Suspect holidays damping down the numbers. No deaths reported as a weekend.

Updated: November 27, 7:15pm
WA reported 2066 cases for Thanksgiving Day, while KC had 800 (second highest day). Seven-day average over 2600 cases/day. No deaths reported so we may be into weekend non-reporting. No updates on the duplicates problem and how/when will be resolved. I don’t expect anything before early next week.

Updated: November 26, 9:45am
WA reported 3188 new cases on Tuesday; KC 764. But they’ve also announced that the high case numbers over the last two weeks include a bunch of duplicate reports: “Therefore, the number of new cases each day may be temporarily inflated. In today’s report, we estimate 1,000-1,200 duplicate new cases.” So we may see numbers come. They’re not working Thanksgiving but will start again on Friday. I expect it will take well into next week to get data cleaned up. 14 new headline deaths (37 unattributed -1), and the curve continues upwards and has matched the seven-day average from the second peak of deaths back in early August (meanwhile cases are three times the second peak).

Updated: November 24, 9:40pm
3558 new cases in WA, so slightly lower than yesterday. 671 new cases in KC, only the fifth highest day. After a brief plateau around 1900 cases/day, our seven day average is now over 2400. 35 new deaths (38 unattributed -2), spread out over the last ten days, but enough that we’re now in the double digits for all but two days over the last three weeks, with a steady upward curve (not nearly as steep as the cases curve).

Update: November 23, 6:45pm
No data yesterday and they’re saying results are backlogged a couple days. Today says 2553 cases for Saturday, 3764 for Sunday. Previous high day was 2501 cases. Our seven-day average has spiked to 2263, besting the previous high of 1993. KC reported 773 cases for Saturday (third highest number) and only 537 for Sunday. 36 new deaths reported, but we always get a big spike early int he week as they don’t report deaths on weekends. The overall deaths curve continues its slow rise since mid-October.

Update: November 21 6:10pm
1744 new cases in WA, 577 in KC. Seven-day new cases average has finally rolled over, down to 1900 after peaking just shy of 2000. They don’t update deaths on weekends.

Updated: November 20 11:15pm
2063 new cases in WA, 638 in KC. Seven-day average still plateaued under 2000. 16 new headline deaths (40 unattributed +4), slow uplift in curve continues.

Updated: November 19 7:20pm
Ratcheting back up. 2038 new cases in WA, 804 in KC. Seven-day average curve has actually flatted for three days. Deaths curve continues to creep up, now averaging above 11 a day, after staying under 10 for a couple months.

Updated: November 18, 9:40pm
Significantly slowed down on Tuesday. 1462 new cases in WA, 283 in KC. 21 new deaths reported (36 unattributed +2). As those continue to be backfilled, we now have a pretty clear trendline of deaths up from mid October. Still nowhere close to the slope of new cases.

Updated: November 17, 6:40pm
2677 new cases in WA on Monday — beating our previous record by 20%. King County had 501 which is lowest in six days. Our seven-day average continues straight up and is now twice what we saw for the second peak in July. We got another early in the week drop of 23 new deaths (34 unattributed +2), which has the seven-day average just above 10 per day, but still nowhere near as steep a trajectory as cases.

Updated: November 16, 11:40pm
1594 new cases in WA which is a big drop from the last four days, but they are Sunday numbers. 672 new cases in King County, which is the second highest number reported. Since they don’t report deaths on weekends, they reported 29 deaths today, but they were spread out over the last ten or so days. But still enough to bring our seven-day average above 10 for about a week. Curve definitely starting to look like deaths have been ramping since mid October.

Updated: November 15, 8:15pm
Another new daily record in WA with 2338 new cases. KC was only 542 new cases, the lowest number in the last four days (but also weekend reporting). The seven-day average is now double what it was in the second spike in late July, with no sign of slowing down. No deaths reporting over weekends.

Updated: November 14, 4:20pm
2286 new cases in WA, topping yesterday’s record by about 9%. 627 new cases in KC, merely the second highest day. No deaths reported as the weekend. Time to hunker down.

Updated: November 13, 7pm
2147 new cases in WA, 798 new cases in KC — both new daily records. Added 12 new deaths to the headline number, but still haven’t quite topped 10 for the seven-day average.

Updated: November 12, 8:35pm
WA reporting again today. 1540 cases on Tuesday and 1883 on Wednesday (a new one day record). Seven-day average now almost 1550 (previous spike peaked below 900) . 622 new cases for King County on Wednesday (also a new one day record). They added 25 new deaths, but were spread out enough to keep our seven-day average deaths below 10.

Updated: November 11, 11:45pm
No data from the state today, 372 new cases in King County. Charts below not updated.

Updated: November 10, 7pm
1450 new cases in WA, 332 in KC. We’ve now had a full week over 1000 cases a day in WA. Another 22 deaths as we get another post-weekend data dump (33 unattributed +1). These were not spread so far back, so our seven-day average of daily deaths number is approaching 10, a threshold we’ve been under since August 21. It now looks like creeping up since mid October. FWIW, our second spike of deaths peaked at an average of 15 daily deaths.

Updated: November 9, 11pm
1245 new cases in WA, 378 in KC. Down from previous days but also Sunday/weekend reporting. 21 new deaths reported, but spread over the past week so the daily deaths number remains below 10 as it has since late August.

Updated: November 8, 9:20pm
1419 new cases in WA, 451 in KC (may be undereported because the weekend). We’ll get a big deaths report tomorrow and Tuesday and see if that curve has stuck to under 10 a day or is finally moving up with the third spike.

Updated: November 7, 11:45pm
1777 new cases in WA, eclipsing the previous days’ record. 418 new cases in KC, merely the fourth highest day total, after the previous three days. Our new cases curve is going parabolic. No deaths reported due to the weekend.

Updated: November 7 12:20am
1706 new cases in WA, 532 in KC — new records for both. Previous high water mark for WA was 1261, 517 for KC. My charts have not included the last couple days for the last couple days (operator error). Updated charts show the seven-day average eclipsing the second spike peak and going near vertical as we have seen previous spikes do as they approach their cliff. Deaths remain pretty flat, even as we hit the six week mark after this spike began to build.

Updated: November 5 8pm
Another big day: 1068 new cases in WA, 517 in KC. That is the fourth day over 1000 in the last week for WA and KC had no asterisk that today’s number included delayed cases from previous days. KC’s previous highest case day was 384 so big increase. Our seven-day average still hasn’t topped the second spike. FWIW, the slope of the curve is less than what we saw for the previous two spikes as they headed to their peaks (which is another way of saying this one could go a lot higher). Two cases reported at Bush today. Meanwhile, our deaths curve remains around half the daily rate of the second peak.

Updated: November 4 7:30pm
Sorry I skipped Election Day. Today was a blockbuster. 1454 new cases in WA, crushing the previous record of 1261. 559 new cases in KC, crushing the previous record of 385. KC says 253 of those were delayed from recent days, but KC still on fire in the southern part of the country, and the third spike is already nearly 50% higher than the first and second spikes in the county. 38 new deaths (31 unattributed -2) added to the headline number over the last two days, but 14 of those were “quality improvement” and went back as far as mid July. The deaths curve still looks pretty flat.

Updated: November 2 10:20pm
1031 new cases in WA, 295 in KC. That is the fourth highest ever for WA and the third highest for KC (which has seen three of its four highest numbers in the last four days), and for a Sunday, so likely lower than it might be. Seven day average for WA is over 750 — previous high in the second peak was 885. KC seven-day average is at a new, all-time high, eclipsing the first and second peaks. 22 new headline deaths reported — typically takes them two or three days to catch up with deaths after not reporting on weekends (33 unattributed +3). Deaths curve still a little elevated but not spiking in parallel with cases.

Updated: November 1 9pm
Slight reduction in new cases today but that may be in part a weekend effect: 814 in WA, 210 in KC.

Updated: October 31 6pm
927 new cases in WA, 334 in KC (second highest ever behind the day before). King County’s seven-day moving average has eclipsed that of both prior peaks. WA still about 100 below the second peak (well over the first peak however), but ramping fast.

Updated: October 30 6:30pm
1047 new cases in WA, 384 in KC. That is the fourth highest number for WA and the highest in KC by a long shot (previous high was 240 on July 1). New cases curve continues onward and upwards. Latest deaths curve doesn’t look like it is taking off.

Updated: October 29 11:55pm
841 new cases in WA, 221 in KC. King County seven-day average is close to topping the first and second peaks. Still can’t quite tell if have an uptick in the deaths curve.

Updated: October 28 8:30pm
725 new cases in WA, 196 in KC. Maybe the beginnings of an uptick in deaths over the last ten days (you can’t pay any attention to the last few days to week of data).

Europe is a mess – looks like Germany on trajectory to pass the US in per capita new cases. They (and France) in process of locking down again.

Updated: October 27 9:10pm
519 new cases in WA, 100 in KC. Our curve continues its upward march, but at less steeply than our first two spikes.

Updated: October 26 11:10pm
582 new cases in WA, 180 in KC. Uptrend in new cases over the last month continues, though the initial spike has moderated in its slope. 25 new “headline” deaths today (31 unattributed -1) but that is after three days of no reporting. History suggests they will allocate those back over two weeks and the curve will stay flat. The deaths curve really has decoupled from the cases curve. In our first two spikes, we saw deaths peak about a week after cases peaked. This time deaths have remains flat despite the upswing in cases for the last month.

Updated: October 25 6:15pm
676 new cases in WA, 160 in KC. Seven-day average continues to trend up, but not as steep as previous peaks.

Updated: October 24 5:20pm
919 new cases in WA on Friday, 212 in KC. Our seven day average continues upwards. Not as steeply as the first or second waves, but very steady. We’re at almost 660 cases/day. The first wave peaked at 430; the second at almost 900.

Updated: October 23 7:15pm
We went over 100,000 cases in WA with 667 cases on Wed and 793 cases on Thursday. KC reported 186 and 229 – that is the most in KC since July 15. Seven-day average starting to form a new plateau at over 600 cases/day.

Europe is a mess — France, Space, Italy and the EU as a whole ahead of the US on a per capita basis, and even Germany looks like it is on a vector to overtake the US.

Updated: October 21 10:50pm
WA will report >100,000 cases tomorrow. 759 new cases in WA on Tuesday. No update from King County.

Updated: October 20 10:15pm
491 new cases in WA on Monday, 98 in KC. So our third spike isn’t asymptotic, with the last couple days around 500 cases. 24 new deaths reported (32 unattributed +4) on top of 19 yesterday, but attributed over the last ten days so the trendline is still pretty flat.

Interesting that the Donald has not picked up on the US being better than Europe on both cases and deaths (or maybe he has — I don’t track his utterances closely).

Updated: October 19 10:45pm
472 new cases in WA on Sunday, 172 in KC — we’ll see if we get a big pop tomorrow due to weekend effect or not. 19 new deaths (28 unattributed -2), which have been spread back over the last couple weeks (the most recent couple days to a week of death numbers really aren’t reliable).

Updated: October 18 10pm
Slower day on Saturday (maybe due to the weekend). 539 new cases in WA, 105 in KC. No deaths reported on weekends.

Updated: October 17 7pm
Thur/Fri new cases in WA: 757/789; in King County 124/219. Definitely looking like the third spike is accelerating. 30 unattributed deaths +1.

Europe is now ahead of the US on per capita basis for new cases:

Updated: Oct 15 5pm
689 new cases in WA, 149 in KC. Upturn in cases continues. 11 new deaths.

Europe is about to pass the US in per capita new cases.

Updated: Oct 14 11:30pm
730 new cases in WA, 170 in King County. Our plateau seems to be turning into an upslope. 10 new deaths (29 unattributed +2).

This NYT story on vaccines is pretty good, albeit depressing, as it suggests vaccines will take time to sort out and they will be of unknown and imperfect effectiveness.

Updated: Oct 13 8:45pm
WA managed to report today. Saturday/Sunday/Monday cases were 815/362/544. The new plateau is a little noisy but holding at above 500 cases a day. King County had 125 cases on Monday. 21 more deaths reported over the last three days (27 unattributed -1).

Updated: Oct 12 11pm
State of WA has been unable to update their numbers for the last two days. On Sunday they said, “We were not able to update the dashboards on Sunday, 10/11/20 due to data processing issues. We hope to resolve these issues and return to regular reporting on Monday, 10/12/20.” Today they said, “We were not able to update the DOH dashboard today. We have identified the data issues but it will take until tomorrow to fully test and implement required revisions. We expect to return to regular reporting on Tuesday, 10/13/2020.” King County reports 174 new cases on Saturday and 152 on Sunday.

Updated: Oct 10 5:40pm
447 new cases in WA, 143 cases in King County. They don’t report deaths on weekends.

Updated: Oct 9 6:30pm
661 new cases in WA, 150 in King County. Still unclear what new trend is. 7 new deaths (28 unattributed +1 — this number continues to climb).

Updated: Oct 8 11:45pm
738 new cases in WA, 167 in King County. Plateau continues. Deaths (27 unattributed +1).

Updated: Oct 7 11:30pm
535 new cases in WA, 151 in King County. Third spike turning into a plateau of around 500 cases per day? King County new cases are now pretty consistently accounting for a percentage of the state total consistent with King County’s relative population.

Updated: Oct 6 11:40pm
I actually forgot to update yesterday… 415 new cases in WA on Sunday, 386 yesterday. 126/119 for King County. Our third spike is starting to look like a blip rather than a consistent upward trend. Deaths steady (26 unattributed +2). Inslee announces some new opening rules for movie theaters, outdoor sports and lets restaurants serve alcohol until 11.

Updated: Oct 4 5:30pm
457 new cases in WA and 82 in King County on Saturday: lower than the last few days, but weekend numbers may also be lower.

Updated: Oct 3 7:25pm
607 new cases in WA on Friday, 192 in King County (biggest since August 12). Still more than the White House, if barely. They don’t report new deaths on weekends now, but did remove one.

Updated: Oct 3 12:20pm
For Thursday, 697 new cases in WA and 189 for King County. That is two straight days over 600 and the UW is evidently blowing up. Deaths (unattributed 24 -1) continue to be pretty flat over last month.

Updated: Oct 2 12:15am
624 new cases in WA, with significant revisions down back to July 4. 160 new cases in King County, which is highest since Aug 27. Other reports suggest the UW is a hot bed of cases. Deaths line is pretty smooth over the last month (25 unattributed +2).

Updated; Sept 30 11:55pm
501 new cases in WA, 137 in King County. Our Sept 22-25 spike in WA is starting to look anomalous as new cases have been back in the 360-500 cases a day range, similar to what we saw most of September. King County however is a little more persistent — the 7-day average bottomed at 76 cases but has been over 100 four of the last seven days. They continue to revise the deaths number down over the last week or so. King County has not recorded a death since Sept 22.

Updated: Sept 29 11:59pm
410 new cases in WA, 51 in King County. Our big spike looking a little more of a one-off in the seven-day average,. They also removed a sizeable number of deaths (~5) back weeks and all the back to early June (unattributed 23 +1). This has effect of flattening out the deaths curve over the last month.

Updated: Sept 28 11:40pm
372 cases in WA, back to the range we saw for most of September. 94 in King County. They have not added any deaths for four days, which is more than a weekend…

Updated: Sept 27 9pm
438 new cases in WA, which is closer to the numbers we saw earlier in September except for the spike of the last four days. Still looks like we may have bottomed on Sept 9. 118 cases in King County which is also starting to trend back up. No deaths reported as it is a weekend.

Updated: Sept 26 6:35pm
600 new cases in WA, 104 in King County. Based on the spike of the last two days, we seem to be headed to a third spike (after April and July).

Updated: Sept 25 11:30pm
Big spike in WA cases with 992 new cases yesterday, which is oveer twice what we have averaged for the last month. Our plateau has definitely headed upwards. 93 in King County. They backfilled a lot of deaths but the average is still 5-7 a day, down from the August peak of over 14.

Updated: Sept 24 9:30pm
547 new cases in WA, 126 in King County. Starting to look like perhaps an inflection up from our plateau in cases. They actually removed a death since yesterday, which is rare especially midweek.

Updated: Sept 23 11:59pm
513 new cases in WA, 87 in King County. State remains in plateau, King County decline might be starting to look like it is plateauing. Maybe starting to see a slight increase in deaths since Sept 9 (22 unattributed -1).

Updated; Sept 22 10pm
303/338 new cases in WA for Sun/Mon, 74/57 for King County. Definitely plateaued out in WA since Sept 9. King County meanwhile continues to trend downward:

The deaths curve (23 unattributed +4) continues to be flat if a little noisy.

Updated: Sept 21 12:15am
WA had errors in today’s data so rolled back to 9/20. Expect to fix tomorrow. King County had 65 new cases.

September 21: Data have been rolled back and are accurate as of 9/20. After posting data for 9/21, DOH discovered errors. We are working to identify the cause and correct these errors. We plan to update our dashboards tomorrow afternoon (9/22).

Updated: Sept 20 11:30pm
356 new cases in WA on Saturday and 60 in King County. Still plateaued on new cases. No deaths reported on weekends.

Updated: Sept 20 11:40am
409/591 new cases in WA on Thurs and Friday; 108/95 in King County. Seven-day average of new cases definitely has plateaued since Sept 9. If there is a spike due to Labor Day reveling and/or colleges starting up, we should start to see it soon. Deaths (19 unattributed +1) are little messier, but running at under half the daily peak from early August.

Updated: Sept 17 7:45pm
352/395 new cases in WA on Tues and Wed; 145 and 38 in King County. Plateau in new cases definitely looking more pronounced, while deaths’ decline a little more noisy.

Updated: Sept 15 7:20pm
326 new cases in WA, 82 in King County. Seven-day average curve for new cases has definitely plateaued out since September 9. Deaths curve definitely peaked August 7. Updates may be sporadic through the weekend.

Updated: Sept 14 8:30pm
For Sunday, 315 new cases in WA and 63 in King County. 15 deaths added after no reports over the weekend (18 unattributed +1). Seven-day average still flat after lengthy linear decline. Deaths curve still headed down.

Updated: Sept 13 9:10pm
352 new cases in WA, 68 in King County. We’ll see if we’re back to systematic underreporting of new cases on weekends or not along with the announcement they are not updating deaths on weekends.

France has passed the US and still on steep upward trajectory:

Updated: Sept 12 9:30pm
473 new cases in WA, 101 in King County. State officially not updating deaths on weekends (as opposed to just not working weekends). Seven-day average curve for new cases looking like it is plateauing.

Updated: Sept 11 6:40pm
557 new cases in WA, 133 in King County. Our long linear decline in cases may finally be bottoming out, in part due to underreporting over Labor Day weekend. The deaths curve is interesting to contrast with the cases curve. Both have two spikes, but the second cases spike is much higher than the first, while the opposite is true of deaths.

France has now joined Spain in a higher per capita rate of new cases than the US (how embarrassing for them)

Updated: Sept 10 11:20pm
461 new cases in WA, 126 in King County. Seven-day averages for both new cases and deaths continue steady decline.

Updated: Sept 9 5:30pm
Catch up data today, but light on cases and heavy on deaths. WA reported 194 cases for Monday and 288 for Tuesday with limited revisions. King County was 28 both days. Daily cases decline remains almost linear for about six weeks (now back to June 21 level). But 25 new deaths after not reporting any since Sept 3 and revisions all the way back to late May (18 unattributed -7). But curve has a very distinct spike on August 7 and has declined by almost half by late August (the most recent ten days of deaths data is usually not very reliable).

And Europe is looking a lot more like the US — France should pass the US tomorrow on per capita cases. Spain already has.

Updated: Sept 8 9:50pm
No updates today from state or county due to “wind storm damage”.

Updated: Sept 7 9:30pm
Very few updates over Labor Day weekend including no deaths reported since Thursday, so expect they will revise upwards Tuesday/Wednesday. Our seven-day average continues its steady decline, while we’ve have to wait and see what the death revisions look like.

Updated: Sept 4 11:20pm
465 new cases in WA, 158 in King County. Seven-day average continues its slow but steady decline (back to June 23). Deaths curve still looks pretty good though unattributed deaths continue to creep up (25 +3). Updates may be spotty to non-existent over Labor Day weekend.

Updated: Sept 3 10pm
531 new cases in WA yesterday; 96 in King County. Can definitely see the rate of growth declining since mid July. Seven-day average remains close to linear decline since July 18. Deaths backlog growing a bit (22 unattributed +6).

Europe’s second wave continues to grow. Spain is ahead of the US in new cases on a per capita basis and France will be shortly:

Updated: Sept 2 9pm
449 new cases in WA (vs Aug average of 584), 108 in King County (vs, Aug average of 139). Continued declines in both seven-day new cases and deaths curves.

Updated: Sept 1 10:30pm
304 new cases in WA, 46 in King County. That is the lowest non-weekend number for WA since June 16 and lowest for King County since June 21. Seven-day average continues slow and steady decline since mid July. Deaths data now looks like it is taking more like ten days for the curve to fill in than previous week, so hard to saw yet if we’re seeing a decline or a plateau since early August. I’ve streamlined some of the text below and am dropping the daily update of the log chart, barring big changes in our trajectory.

Updated: August 31 10pm
323 new cases in WA on Sunday, 111 in King County. We’ll see if there is a pop tomorrow after what looked like a weekend where they weren’t working very hard. The seven-year average continues its very steady decline and is now back to where is was in late June.

Updated: August 30 9:45pm
Very few updates today (e.g. no deaths since Thursday) — they seem to be taking the weekend off. 450 new cases in WA, 74 in King County.

Updated: August 29 6:20pm
593 new cases in WA, 119 in King County. They totally took the weekend off wrt deaths numbers – non reported and no revisions.

Europe definitely blowing up:

Updated: August 28 9:30pm
629 new cases in WA, 184 in King County. Seven-day average at risk of losing its near straight line decline since mid July, but it is at half the level. Deaths peak looking a little more plateau-like but still with a peak on August 4.

Updated: August 27 11:40pm
570 new cases in WA, 128 in King County. Seven day average remains in near linear decline for cases with deaths peaking on August 4. 16 unattributed deaths +1.

Interesting to see what happening in Europe, particularly France and Spain:

Updated: August 26 11:45pm
482 new cases in WA, 172 new cases in King County. Seven-day average continues very consistent decline since mid July. Deaths curve continues to decline since August 4 though not as steeply as a couple days ago (they found 10+ new deaths for August 14 for example).

Updated: August 25 6:30pm
360 new cases in WA. Steady decline in seven-day average continues. Only 53 new cases in King County, which has previously been very steady at 100+ even as statewide cases have come down. That is lowest King County number since June 21. Deaths (15 unattributed +1) definitely looks like it hit a peak on August 4 and has been declining since. The state also made a major revision to the way they report positive and negative tests. Previously it was per person (so five negative tests would only count as one), now it is total number of tests. The previous data series showed testing in decline since mid July but it now much steadier, which suggests some people are getting tested regularly (e.g. health care workers).

Updated: August 24 6pm
350 new cases in WA, which is the lowest number not reported on a weekend since June 16. Seven-day average continues its slow-but-steady decline. 146 new cases in King County which is very close to the average so far in August. Deaths curve definitely looking like it peaked in early August.

Updated: August 23 11:59pm
Back after a visit to the low bandwidth hitherlands. Fewest backward revisions ever for new cases (418 in WA, 108 in King County), so may be seeing some weekend underreporting. Seven-day average continues its very steady decline (back to end of June level) while looking more and more like deaths curve peaked August 4 (14 unattributed +1).

Updated: August 20 7:30pm
Definitely seeing a decline in WA cases while King County remains pretty steady. 703 new cases in WA yesterday; 183 in King County. WA peaked July 15 at 1258; King County was 239 the same day (its second highest after 240 cases on July 1). WA averaged 776 cases/day in July vs. 626 in August MTD (-19%), King County averaged 163 in July and 153 in August (-6%), versus averaging only 72 in June. Looking more and more like deaths (13 unattributed +0) peaked August 6 and declining slightly since (the last week of deaths numbers are always incomplete).

Updated: August 19 11:45pm
WA reports 505 new cases yesterday; King County 141. Seven-day average for state continues very steady decline and we’re now back to early July levels. Lots of revisions today and they took out cases back into June. Starting to look like maybe a peak in deaths curve on August 7 (13 unattributed -1).

Updated: August 18 8:15pm
WA bounces back from yesterday’s very low number to 553 new cases, while King County continues in its range with 165 cases. The Seattle Times did a story that highlighted King County cases are concentrated in the south (Federal Way) with an upswing on the eastside. Seven-day average remains on very steady decline. Death’s curve maybe starting to plateau though slight gain in unattributed deaths (14 +2).

Updated August 18 12:30am
280 new cases reported in WA for Sunday. That is the lowest number since June 21. Either we’re seeing a big drop or we’re back to the public health authorities taking the weekends off (June 21 was also a Sunday). Given how few revisions we saw for Saturday and Sunday, my guess is it is more a weekend effect than a sudden drop in cases. King County has 180 cases which is on the high end of the last couple weeks. Deaths number very low relative to recent trends so expect to a see big pop tomorrow.

Updated: August 16 11:45pm
609 new cases in WA, 129 in King County. Deaths (12 unattributed +1). Seven-day average for new cases continues slow decline. Deaths curve maybe starting to show a plateau.

Updated: August 15 11:45pm
779 new cases in WA, 174 in King County. Deaths curve continues to slowly but surely build.

Updated: August 14 11:30pm
835 new cases in WA yesterday, 136 in King County. That is over a 25% increase relative to the last five days. Deaths curve continues to look like a real uptick (10 unattributed +0). They continue to report bigger headline deaths numbers recently but then distribute them back over the last two months so it doesn’t steepen the curve quite so much.

Updated: August 13 11pm
659 new cases in WA yesterday, 225 in King County. The bump pretty much all from King County. Deaths continues to show upturn.

Updated: August 12 9:30pm
555 new cases in WA yesterday. We’re seeing a slow decline in new cases. The seven-day average is down about a quarter from the July 20 high. July averaged 777 cases per day while August has only been 653. King County has not declined as much, with 149 new cases on Tuesday. King County has averaged 144 cases per day in August vs. 163 in July. Deaths continue on an uptrend since July 19.

Updated: August 11 8pm
We’re back in business after a few Big Sky days. New cases in WA are trending down nicely (601/586/495) over the last three days, with the seven0day average now under 700. King County was 129/148/81. They continue to backfill deaths (10 unattributed +0) and there is now a pronounced trend up since the middle of July. Deaths reporting continues to be bursty and tend to underreport on weekends.

Updated: August 7 10:15pm
712 new cases in WA, 134 in King County. 19 new headline deaths, which unless they are getting more timely in reporting deaths, suggests we will see continued uptick in deaths.

Updated: August 6 11pm
866 new cases in WA, 192 in King County. Deaths number up by 29 which is a big increase even if distributed back over the last week (prior to that they removed deaths, which steepens the curve). Unattributed 11 +0.

Updated: August 5 11pm
706 new cases in WA, 167 in King County. Seven-day average continues gradual decline — back to mid July levels. Revisions to deaths curve steepen it a little more (11 unattributed +1). Pretty clear schools will be remote this fall. Updates may be sporadic over the next week.

Updated: August 4 10pm
669 new cases in WA on Monday. Lots of revisions back to mid April. The seven-day average has been slowly declining since July 20 and is down about 15% from the peak. Peak weekly testing looks like it may be down as much as 25% since mid July. 145 new cases in King County. While cases didn’t see big pop after the weekend, deaths did with 19 new deaths reported (10 unattributed -1). But they allocated them over the last week so it didn’t change the slope of the curve much if at all.

Updated: August 3: 10pm
554 new cases in WA on Sunday, which is the lowest reported number since July 13. But given how few revisions there were today, we may be looking at weekend underreporting. The last few weekends have not had an underreporting problem, so Monday and Tuesday’s numbers will be interesting to see. King County reported 124 new cases. Four new deaths (11 unattributed +0) at the state level but King County reported seven so some reconciliation to come.

Updated: August 2 10:45pm
633 new cases in WA on Saturday, which is the lowest number since July 13. We may be back to a slow down in reporting on weekends. Seven-day average has settled into a plateau after the peak on July 20. King County had 111 new cases which is its lowest since July 27. Few revisions to deaths so curve looks about the same (unattributed 11 +0). Testing has also diminished with the previous peak being July 13. It usually takes 7-10 days for the full testing number to come in but looking like two subsequent Mondays (which are always the highest number of the week) are lower.

Updated: August 1 8:40pm
WA reported numbers for Thursday and Friday today: 982 and 845 new cases respectively. King County was 158 and 202 respectively. They continue to selectively remove some earlier deaths while adding new ones, which gives our curve a little bit more of an upward inflection since about July 20 (11 unattributed +1).

Updated: August 1 11:25am
There was no update from the state on Friday with Thursday’s numbers, nor an explanation for why they didn’t update.

Updated: July 30 11:45pm
825 new cases in WA, 160 in King County. They continue to move deaths around but curve still looks elevated by not spiking (10 unatttributed +0).

Updated: July 29 9:15pm
793 new cases in WA, 150 in King County. Our seven-day curve peaked July 20 and has been declining slowly since then. Lots of revisions to the deaths series (unattributed 10 +0), all the way back to late April, but doesn’t materially change the recent curve.

Updated: July 28 7pm
Lots of data revisions today. 875 new cases in WA and 110 in King County. They went back and added cases back two months. Bigger revision was on the deaths number where they reported 30 today (unattributed 10 +0) that were allocated back over the last six weeks, but enough in the last week to change the shape of our curve to a definite upswing since July 15. I’ll left yesterday’s chart in below so you can see how the revisions play out.

Updated: July 27 6pm
685 new cases in WA on Sunday (which is usually underreported) and 186 in King County. Expect higher numbers for Monday and Tuesday as tests tend to be highest early in the week. 17 new deaths reported (10 unattributed +0) and while they were allocated back over the last ten days, we do now see another little spike upwards over the last week (still not as high as the first week of July).

Updated: July 26 10:30pm
796 new cases in WA and 178 in King County. Deaths curve stable and maybe even down (unattributed 10 +0) — we need to get to middle of the week to see if that sticks.

Updated: July 25 7pm
1045 new cases in WA (our 4th highest number) and 208 in King County. The total deaths number went down by 1 so they probably reclassified about 10 over the last month as non-COVID deaths. This is the third or fourth time they have reduced the deaths number (unattributed 10 -1). If anything, it brings the curve down more after the slight ramp the first week of July.

Updated: July 24 6pm
865 new cases in WA, 213 in King County yesterday. 13 new deaths reported plus they deflated the unattributed number from yesterday (11 -9), but still looks pretty flat for the last ten days as they allocated fairly evenly over the last week.

Updated: July 23 7:15pm
766 new cases in WA, 175 in King County. I’m going to stop tracking Yakima County as they seem to have things relatively under control. Per statement from the State today (aka a Statement!), R-naught in Western Washington is 1.54, Eastern Washington is 1.41 and near 1.0 in Yakima County. Our seven-day average may have peaked, but those are still pretty bleak numbers and about double our previous early April peak. Fewest revisions to the deaths number I can remember, but big spike in the number of unattributed deaths (20 +11), so presumably they will allocate them later.

Updated: July 22 11:15pm
679 new cases in WA yesterday, 173 in King County and 51 in Yakima County. Deaths looking like they’ve plateaued at a slightly higher level over the last week than the previous month (9 unattributed +0).

Updated: July 21 9:15pm
838 new cases in WA (Seattle Times says 832 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯). 147 in King County and 76 in Yakima County. Deaths still maybe plateauing, though they continue to remove deaths back 2-3 weeks, which should make the curve steeper (9 unattributed +0).

Updated: July 20 11:15pm
797 new cases in WA yesterday (and Seattle Times gets it right today!), 180 in King County and 60 in Yakima County. Deaths maybe plateauing for the second week in July (9 unattributed +0), and hard to draw conclusions from more recent than that given inevitable revisions.

Updated: July 19 9pm
934 new cases in WA yesterday (continue to be impressed that the Seattle Times gets this number wrong every day — they’re usually low). State seems to be working weekends though the counties still seem to take it easier. The seven-day average is over twice what we saw during the previous late March/early April peak, and it is still headed up. Deaths curve still hard to read but could argue it has flattened again after a slight uptick in the first ten days of July (8 unattributed -1). The deaths curve is certainly not keeping up with the boom in cases that started in late May.

This new NYT map does a pretty good job at showing the relative hot spots in the state. It is interesting that you can trace the Columbia River in the orange/red zones in the middle of the state. The NYT data is off a little too but not materially.

Updated: July 18 9pm
971 new cases yesterday which is our fourth highest day all-time. King County had 184 while Yakima County had 86 (and I’m too lazy to add up Franklin and Benton Counties because the state goes out of their way to make that hard). Deaths curve still showing uptick since the beginning of July, but nowhere near as steep as the cases which took off in late May. There is still a lot of noise in the deaths data, with revisions and unattributed deaths (9 unattributed +0). New deaths are almost always spread out over the past ten days rather than the date they are posted.

Updated: July 17 11:55pm
763 new cases yesterday. King County had 215 while Yakima had 134. Deaths curve starting to show an inflection point upwards as of the beginning of November, but they’re still revising back a couple weeks (9 unattributed +2).

Updated: July 16 7:10pm
WA blew away the record with 1266 new cases (previous record 1077). King County had its second highest ever while Yakima hit a new but they had some reporting blips over the last couple days so suspect that is a couple days worth. Too early to tell if thee deaths curve is inflecting upwards (7 unattributed +0).

Updated: July 15 10:45pm
750 new cases in WA on Tuesday. King County has reported more cases than Yakima County 8 of the last 9 days. Maybe most alarming was a big increase in new deaths (17) and really more as they removed some earlier deaths (7 unattributed +0). King County reported 14 new deaths, the biggest number in nearly two months. As usual, new deaths are distributed over the past 7-10 days, so while not a big spike, you can now discern an uptrend in the deaths curve since the beginning of July.

Updated: July 14 11pm
A mere 554 new cases on Monday. I expect a pop tomorrow as usually Monday is the day of the week with the most tests administered. Deaths still flattish (7 unattributed +0) though could squint and see beginnings of an upward tick in the last couple days.

Traditionally they have unreported and undertested on weekends and we see a big pop on Mondays (reported Tuesday), so expecting tomorrow’s number to be even bigger.

Updated: July 13 11pm
All time record with 1079 new cases. Deaths number (7 unattributed +0) actually declined as they took out 39 that they say are not due to COVID, but no additional detail. The bulk of those removed were in the last month, but it doesn’t change the shape of the curve much. King County’s deaths numbers didn’t change at all. Another day where Yakima didn’t report/update their website.

Updated: July 12 9:30pm
I didn’t update Thursday’s cases due to extremely slow rural Internet. The state didn’t update Friday’s cases at all. Been months since they’ve have reporting issues and have not seen any explanation. But they did provide both Friday and Saturday data today: 600 cases on Friday and 854 cases on Saturday (second highest all-time). Some press are combining the two numbers for one day and others, like the NYT, are very confused and show cases plummeting. Deaths continue to be flattish while bouncing around a little (8 unattributed +1). We could be seeing the beginnings of an upturn but given how much they revise the previous week, it is hard to tell until we’re over a week past any inflection point.

Updated: July 10 12:30am
645 new cases in WA on Wednesday. 167 in King County and 115 in Yakima County. Deaths still flattish (7 unattributed +0).

Updated: July 8 7pm
535 new cases for Tuesday. King County had twice as many as Yakima. Deaths still flat (7 unattributed -1).

Updated: July 7 10:30pm
Slower day – only 443 cases in WA. Both King and Yakima Counties reported in the 60s. A little surprised it is so low, as normally Mondays are the day of the week with the most testing, but maybe we won’t see it until tomorrow. Deaths remain flattish and so far have not followed the rise in cases which started nearly a month ago.

Updated: July 6 10:35pm
1088 new cases in WA today, which is a record by a long shot. Our previous all time high was 754. Seven day average is 50% higher than the previous late March/early April peak. King County had 126 cases. Benton/Franklin/Yakima combined had 352. They make it hard to compare counties but it looks like the spread is pretty wide. Yet deaths remain flattish (8 unattributed +1).

Updated: July 5 9:50pm
Surprisingly high numbers for a weekend when they usually underreport, which probably isn’t a good sign. Both WA and King County report their third highest totals of new cases, while seven-day average continues to hit new records. Deaths remain flattish with even a downward bias of late (7 unattributed +0), despite cases ramping since the middle of June.

Updated: July 3 5:50pm
635 new cases in WA on Thursday, our second highest tally ever behind Wednesday. Another all-time high for the seven-day moving average. I suspect we’ll see a lull in reporting over the next couple days due to the July 4th holiday (Yakima didn’t update their site today). King County had 123 cases to Yakima’s 79. Deaths continue flattish (7 unattributed +0).

Updated: July 2 11:59pm
All-time highs for new cases in WA and King County, and the seven-day average. Yakima 20% of new cases while King County is 33%. Deaths remain flattish (7 unattributed -1).

Updated: July 1 1030pm
618 new cases in WA yesterday, missing previous all-time high by 1. Seven-day average at a new all-time high. King County registers most new cases since mid-April, and three times Yakima County. Deaths remain flattish (8 unattributed +0). Basically, the groundhog tested positive and we’re in for (at least) six more weeks of lockdown.

Updated: June 30 11pm
569 new cases in WA yesterday — second highest number ever. King County is 22% while Yakima only 9%. Seven-day average hits another all time high. Deaths staying flattish (8 unattributed +0).

Updated: June 29 11:50pm
506 new cases in WA yesterday, King County hit highest number since April and was a third of the state’s new cases. Yakima down to 17%. Seven-day average is at an all-time high. Deaths continue to be flattish (8 unattributed +0).

Updated: June 28 9:30pm
Internet problems prevented an update yesterday, so here is a bonus edition. 554 new cases in WA Friday and 347 Saturday (and weekends usually underreported). King County was 22% and 24% of those, while Yakima 13% and 25%, respectively. Some of the counties neighboring Yakima (Benton and Franklin) have also blown up. Deaths flat but they tend to take a couple days to get reported (8 unattributed +0).

Interesting to see the Governor decide to stop graduating counties to the next phase on the heels of letting King County go through despite missing multiple of the metrics for progressing.

Updated: June 27 8:45 am (delayed due to slow rural Internet)
Thursday’s numbers remain very high 491 new cases. Yakima 30% and King County 17%. Our seven-day average is at an all-time high. Deaths’ curve remains flattish a month after new cases started to spike (8 unattributed +0).

Updated: June 25 9:30pm
Another 500 cases yesterday. Yakima just slightly beating King County by 6 cases. Seven-day average is at second highest ever (behind March 31). Deaths curve remains flattish (8 unattributed +0).

Updated: June 24 8:45pm
Down a little from yesterday but still a lot of new cases (483). King County had more than twice as many as Yakima County, so it isn’t just a problem in Eastern Washington. Our seven-day average is back to what it was at the beginning of April, and approaching the all-time high which was March 31. Deaths still flattish (unattributed 8 +0).

Updated: June 23 7:45pm
Another big day of new cases. 517 statewide, with Yakima and King Counties almost identical at about 19% of the total each. Our seven day average is creeping back to ever earlier in April (now highest since April 5 – all time high was March 31). No one wants to discuss whether the ramp in King County over the last three weeks is due to the protests. Deaths have flattened but it is taking a while to get them all reported (unattributed 8 +0).

Lots of media commentary of the seeming disconnect between an accelerating rate of new cases while deaths continue to decline, Positive speculation is new cases skew younger so have a lower mortality rate and getting better at treatment. The skeptical view is deaths lag cases by about three weeks so remains to be seen.

Updated: June 22 8:30pm
No update yesterday due to network issues. We’re into the weekend so numbers will be low, but Saturday was over 450 new cases (after Friday’s all-time high) and Sunday was 200. Yakima was 32% and 21% respectively. King County was 15% and 20% respectively. I’m largely ignoring the last 4-5 days of deaths numbers at this point, as they all get revised later. But looking before that, deaths are flat to a little up (unattributed 8 +1). In other states where we’re seeing big increases in new cases, we’re not seeing a similar uptick in deaths. By the end of the month we should be able to see if this is true for Washington.

Updated: June 20 8:15pm
Most new cases ever in WA — over 600. Yakima is a third of them, while King County has dropped to 11%. Governor makes masks mandatory for Yakima County. Zero backward revisions which I don’t think has ever happened. Usually they go back at least a couple days, but maybe working even less now on weekends. Deaths continue small upward trend (unattributed 7 +0).

Updated: June 19 10:50pm
So King County advances to Phase 2! Despite missing two of the eight metrics as of Tuesday and three by today given the ramp in new cases this week (Thursday had the most new cases since May 5, eclipsing Wednesday which previously had that status). They seem to have thrown in the towel…

Another 400+ day for Washington new cases . 7-day average is at its highest since April 10. Yakima down slightly to 28% of new WA cases. Death trend still slightly up (I ignore the last couple days given it takes them time to attribute them). Unattributed 7 (-5).

Updated: June 18 6:30pm
Another big bump in new cases with over 400. The 7-day average is back to where it was in early April. King County had its most new cases in three weeks and the second most since May 5. Yakima also got back in the game after a low number yesterday and was just shy of a third of all cases in the state. King County’s “magic number” goes to 70 (+38). Hard to see how the state lets King County go to Phase 2 tomorrow based on the data. On the deaths side, they put back the ones they removed yesterday and then some. With revisions, we now have an upward trend in deaths over the last two weeks (unattributed 12 +0).

Updated: June 17 11pm
Lots of data today. The state explained yesterday’s downward revisions to new cases as removing antibody tests from the new cases data (King County did this at the beginning of May but evidently other counties were making this mistake). Today had the fewest backward revisions of new cases I can remember. That said, our 7-day average of new cases is the highest it has been since early April and we’ve gone from about 200 a day to over 300. Yakima had a big drop and was only 14% of new cases, which is its lowest in at least a month. And the UW did over 5000 tests yesterday and noted that their positive rate, which had been pretty consistently under 2%, bounced to 3.2%. They do over half of the state’s testing. The state also removed 5 deaths from the headline number, which should confuse people who just take the headline number. Unattributed 12 (+0). King County magic number to 32 (-2). I mistakenly said it was 58 yesterday (that was new cases) when it was 36.

Updated: June 16 8pm
Another big day of new cases (second most since April 10), but they also did a heavy revision and removed hundreds of cases from March and April (they’ll probably put them back in tomorrow and make me reenter them). King County magic number up to 58 (+12) but the political messaging seems to be that the stated metrics don’t matter (only green on 6 out of 8 in latest update) as they’re looking at it more “holistically”. Yakima now a smaller percentage of new cases than King County for last two days, after outperforming for a couple weeks. Deaths keep getting revised up but overall curve staying flat (unattributed 12 +0).

Updated: June 15 6:30pm
Another 300+ new cases, and that is with likely weekend underreporting. Typically Monday is the biggest testing day of the week so would expect increases to continue over the next couple days. Deaths flat but I don’t trust the last couple days of those numbers any more (unattributed 12 +0). King County magic number is up to 21 (+13) but the county has filed to move onto Phase 2 anyway (despite being short on several nominal metrics).

Updated: June 14 8:40pm
Decline in new cases from yesterday, but think we’re seeing weekend underreporting (saw very few backwards revisions). Deaths remain flat (unattributed 12 +0). King County magic number to 8 (-54), but mostly due to the biggest day since early May leaving the 14 day sum. Last three days have been elevated in King County (and they have not updated their own dashboard since June 7).

Updated: June 13 5:50pm
Another pretty big increase in new cases. Unlike yesterday, which was a slightly higher headline number (392 vs. 367 today), Friday actually saw more new cases (341 vs. 278) than Thursday, as Thursday’s number included more backwards revisions. Our seven day trend curve has actually dipped a little because the big spike on June 5 timed out, but we have a pretty steep ramp over the last four days. Deaths remains flattish (12 unattributed +0). King County magic number to 62 (+8), though I don’t have a lot of confidence in this number.

We saw another step function up in testing this past week. UW hit multiple record highs and statewide we’re pushing 10,000 tests a day (previous record was low 8000s).

Updated: June 12 6:20pm
After revising down yesterday, they put them all back today. So while the headline number of new cases was high, the revisions mean it wasn’t as bad (headline of 392 vs. 276 actual). But still enough of an increase to keep our upward trend of new cases over the last three weeks. Notable pop in King County which had its largest number of new cases in a week, while Yakima has flattened out and was only 38% of new cases yesterday, Starting to observe a consistent lag of about three days for deaths numbers to get attributed, so the furthest right part of the chart is not very reliable. Overall, we’re pretty flat on the death trend for the last three weeks (unattributed 12 +1).

I also looked at King County revisions and they don’t sync up with the state data, so not sure what to think. Using the headline data from King County, the magic number is now 54 (+40) but I don’t have a lot of confidence in the underlying data.

Updated: June 11 7:45pm
After lots of revisions this week that went back to March, today we saw significant revisions but down. The only time we have seen that before was when King County was including antibody tests and then those were removed. No comment from the state. Neither King nor Yakima County saw major revisions. But the effect when you remove earlier cases is to accentuate the uptrend in new cases over the last three weeks. The deaths trend remains pretty flat (unattributed 11 +0). King County magic number down to 14 (-30), but I have not yet gone back and checked impact of revisions. King County has two big days of new cases that will time out over the weekend, so may be able to get to the new cases number required for Phase 2 (there are other criteria too like positive test rate that the county is not meeting).

Updated: June 10 11:15pm
Lowest number of new cases in a week, but lots of restatements for both new cases and deaths. The result of the restatements is the deaths curve now looks flat for almost two weeks (unattributed 11 +1). Yakima slowed and was only 30% of new cases in the state today. King County’s theoretical magic number is now 44 (-12) but I suspect I need to go look at their restatements.

Updated: June 9 5:30pm
We got out post-weekend revisions today. New cases remain on upward trend and with revisions the deaths curve is now pretty flat (unattributed 10 +0). King County Magic Number is 56 (+12). And my Magic Number calculations for King County don’t include revisions but I’ll go get those at some point.

Updated: June 8 6:50pm
New cases over 300, continuing the upward trend. 50% in Yakima County. Deaths continues to trend down but suspect we’ll see some upward revisions for the weekend. Unattributed deaths 11 +0. The King County magic number will be henceforth be reported as the number that has to go to zero. The current magic number is 44 (-18).

Updated: June 7 9:20pm
Very few backward revisions from the state and King County reported the earliest in the day ever, which makes me think we’re seeing weekend underreporting. Nevertheless, new cases down from Friday’s big spike, but still higher than most of May. Deaths curve still down but slope keeps flattening. Unattributed deaths 11 +1).

49% of new cases from Yakima County. King County magic number at 646 vs. target of 584 (-12).

Updated: June 6 6pm
Big spike in new cases — the most since April 10. Fully half of those are in Yakima County which has been a third to half or more of all cases in the state in the last week. King County has not reported yet today and the state report had very few backwards revisions, so may be seeing the weekend effect. Deaths curve still trending down (unattributed 11 +0).

Updated: June 5 6:20pm
Both new cases and deaths trends are relatively flat, but elevated. Cumulative deaths number went up by 11 and they filled them in over the last ten days, so effectively shifted the curve up (unattributed deaths also 11 +1). The reopening dashboards still have not been updated since last Friday. Presumably declaring Phase 1.5 for King County is a sop to show continued progress even as the target metrics recede. King County magic number is 699 +11, vs. target of 584, so continuing to go the wrong way. Yakima County has provided ~40% of new cases over the last week.

Updated: June 4 5pm
New cases growth maybe peaked but still elevated relative to May while deaths trend continues to decline. Unattributed deaths 10 +0. Neither state nor King County have updated their reopening dashboards, but King County 14-day number now 688 +28, so headed the wrong way.

Updated: June 3 8:45pm
The divergence since May 27 of new cases up while deaths down continues. Unattributed deaths 10 +9.

I show King County at 660 cases over the last 14 days against a “magic number” required of 584. King County has not updated their dashboard since May 28 (when things looked better). The state now has a dashboard that shows where every county is, though they don’t have dates for their data and suspect it also lags.

Updated: June 2 11:15pm
New case and death trends continue to go opposite directions. New cases still elevated (and the protests of the last week will be a great controlled experiment in outdoor communicability), while deaths resumed downward trend (though our day without Saturday now has two deaths (and unattributed deaths 10 +0).

The Seattle Times has stepped in to try to clarify what counties are in what phases. Yakima County has stopped showing their daily cases data. King County hasn’t updated its reopening dashboard since May 28.

Updated: June 1 4:45pm
New cases still elevated, though yesterday’s big pop may have been from 85 cases from a fishing boat, though the specific date is a little ambiguous. Deaths back above zero but no deaths on Saturday is still holding up.

The communications from the state and county around the nominal expiration today of the Stay Home order has been really poor, but I guess they’re distracted with the riots. I would expect to see a list somewhere that shows what Phase each county is in, but have not been able to find such a thing. King County has a new dashboard that shows how they are tracking against the goals to get to Phase 2. Their data is a few days old so missed the recent spike. I have King County at 663 (-16) against the magic number of 584.

Updated: May 31 8pm (with charts updated 10:25pm)
A tale of two cities as our two trendlines head in opposite directions. No new deaths for WA (King County reported one), but it is the weekend where they tend to underreport and catch up early in the week. But another big increase in new cases — the most since May 1. King County had its most cases since May 5 (105) and Yakima County declined a little to 124. King County’s 14-day “magic number” is now 679 (+65) vs. a target of 584.

Updated: May 30 8:15pm
Today’s new cases slightly lower than yesterday but the three day trend is still elevated, while the death’s trend has resumed its gradual decline (unattributed 9 +0). Washington has reported 875 cases in the last three days, with 123 of them in King County and Yakima County reporting over 120 cases EACH of the last three days. King County over those three days is 14% of the cases with 31% of the population, while Yakima County is over 40% of the cases with only 3% of the state’s population. Positive testing rates are in the mid 20%s recently for Yakima County. King County’s 14 day total is down to 614, against a nominal goal of 584.

Updated: May 29 6pm
Almost as many new cases as yesterday, so our trend line there is moving upwards. Death trend is back to flat with a slight downward bias.

Inslee is revising the requirement for new cases to be below 10 cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days. Now the number is 25 per 100,000. The Seattle Times story is a little weird in that it celebrates Snohomish County getting to open soon yet buries the lede that King County still isn’t ready. We had 646 cases in the last two weeks, and would need to be under the revised bar of 584. But the article suggests there are other criteria as well.

Updated: May 28 6:45pm
Pretty big pop in new cases for yesterday, which makes sense in terms of the Memorial Day backlog: develop symptoms over the weekend, get tested on Tuesday (testing drops off dramatically over the weekend), and get results on Wednesday. It is the most new cases since May 1 and is enough to cause our seven-day average curve to start to tick up. Deaths have also been restated upwards enough to flatten our curve (with even a slight upward bias) that had been declining steadily for over two weeks. (Unattributed deaths are 9 -1).

It will be interesting to see how Inslee plays this tomorrow. Hard to talk about “broadening the criteria” when the trend is upwards.

Updated: May 27 6pm
We saw a pretty big revision in new cases going back to early March and an increase in the headline deaths number of 18 (unattributed 10 +1). Part of that is catching up with underreporting over Memorial Day weekend, but it goes a lot further back. The new cases curve is still pretty flat and our rate of decline of our deaths curve is about the same (but shifted up) with revisions.

The current stay-at-home order expires on Monday. Previously, Inslee has extended this on the Friday before expiration. King County doesn’t meet the stated criteria for proceeding to Phase 2 (over by about 3x), though there is some vague talk of “broadening the criteria”.

Updated: May 26 5pm
I think we’re seeing underreporting due to Memorial Day with very low numbers of cases and backwards revisions (though they did add another death in late February) for yesterday, so not putting a lot of weight on today’s numbers.

Looking ahead, one of the criteria for proceeding to “Phase 2” is “less than 10 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14 day span”. It is unclear if that is daily new cases or cumulative over the two week period. If daily, King County is looking good for Phase 2; if it is cumulative, we’re nowhere close (we’d need to average under 17 cases/day and our average over the last two weeks is over 51 cases/day). Update: This Seattle Times article suggests it is the cumulative bar.

Updated: May 25 11:59pm
New cases slightly lower but still elevated for last three days. Deaths trend still looks good (unattributed: 9 +0).

Updated: May 24 8:45pm
Two days of increased new cases, while deaths curve continues to slope down (unattributed: 9 +0).

Updated: May 23 10:30pm
Bit of a pop in new cases on Friday, to about twice what we’ve seen for the last week. Deaths trend continues to look favorable (9 unattributed +0). While the southern states get all the attention, the state to watch is California. They’ve seen an material increase (+50%) in new cases over the last five days. (I am basing that off NYT data, which is not accurate for Washington…).

Updated: May 22 8:15pm
News cases remain flat and, even with yesterday’s restatement, the deaths trend is favorable (9 unattributed deaths +0).

Updated: May 21 9:45pm
New cases now flat to down for five straight days. The big news is they finally drained the backlog of deaths so we now have only 9 (-97) unattributed deaths. Here is a chart that compares the updated death data (blue) with the series as of yesterday (red). The allocation is pretty even going back to March 9.

Updated: May 20 9:30pm
New cases have been pretty flat for four straight days. The new deaths trend is still down even with some of the recent revisions. At 106 unattributed deaths (-2 from yesterday). Yakima remains the hot spot in the state. King County down to 22% of new cases today, despite having about a third of the state’s population (after having been ~55% of new cases in March and ~46% in April). https://rt.live/ estimates R(t) for the state at 0.93, and King County is presumably lower.

Updated: May 19 11:15pm
Today is Tuesday, but we’re getting numbers reported for Monday, and it sure looks like a pop after the weekend. New cases have been relatively flat for three days, but a big pop of deaths. The recent days of just one death have been revised up to 2 and 6 respectively and a further bulge in unattributed deaths (now 108 + 14).

Updated: May 18 11pm
New cases stayed low for two days in a row and another day with only one death (94 unattributed -2). Might still be low due to weekend (data is reported for the previous day). Monday is also usually the busiest day of the week for tests, presumably as they get to people who developed symptoms over the weekend.

Updated: May 17 8:15pm
New cases down and only one death yesterday. Very few backwards revisions which suggests likely undercounting due to the weekend. The deaths trend looks really good (96 unattributed -1) while the new cases trend is flat overall but bouncing around a fair amount. It sounds like Yakima and the Tricities are the current hot spots in WA. Five total cases in the Methow and two total deaths in Okanogan County. The Mazama Store has reopened!

Updated: May 16 6:40pm
Seen a pop up in new cases up two of the last three days. Testing looks pretty constant (reporting on total tests lags by about a week, but pretty consistently 6000+ a weekday since April 24). Deaths, even though the zero days got revised up, still on a down trend. At 97 unattributed deaths (-1).

Updated: May 15 6pm
New cases still flat. They did attribute two deaths to the 13th, so the zero death day did not hold. Nevertheless, between two yesterday and two the previous day, we still have a nice decline in the deaths trend after averaging 10 a day since the beginning of May. There are 98 deaths unattributed to a specific day.

Updated: May 14 7pm
New cases doubled from yesterday but longer term trend still favorable. WA reported NO new deaths for yesterday (8 more not assigned a date, so may backfill into that date) and King County also reported NO deaths (you’d think King County would be strict subset and roll up to WA numbers but usually don’t).

Updated: May 13 11:45pm
Skipped a day. No major news. Both new daily cases and deaths are back on a slight decline. Unallocated deaths at 94.

Updated: May 11 11:45pm
New cases and deaths both pretty flat with a very slight downward tilt, but that may be a weekend reporting effect. The backward revisions today were the lowest I can remember, but that may also be a weekend effect.

Updated: May 10 7:30pm
There has been a fair amount of variability in the daily new cases number of late but the overall trend is still pretty flat. Same with deaths (unallocated at 91 -1). All time record number of tests administered on May 6 (over 7000).

Updated: May 9 11pm
New cases volatile but week-long trend is flat in the face of what looks like almost a 50% increase in testing. Death trend has flattened out, but latest numbers may be low due to the weekend effect. Unallocated death backlog now 92 (-7) and the reduction were allocated to several weeks ago, which makes the curve flatter.

Updated: May 8 7pm
New cases continue to bounce around a lot, with today’s number half of yesterday’s. Week long trend however has ticked down in the face of consistently more testing. Deaths trend has finally flatted out after about a month straight decline. Unallocated deaths 101 +0).

Updated: May 7 10:45pm
Very modest uptrend of the last week in new cases continues. Deaths trend continues to decline (101 unallocated +6). Total test numbers look like they take about a week to show up, but looks like the big spike up since April 24th is continuing.

Updated: May 6 5:30pm
New cases slightly elevated, but lot of variability over the last few days. Deaths trend is steady downward (unallocated number is 95 -8).

Updated: May 5 5pm
New cases seem to be back to flat, though been bouncing up and down last couple days. Deaths trend remains a steady trajectory down (but unallocated number up to 103 +10).

Updated: May 4 5pm
Little bump back up in new cases, probably offsetting yesterday’s King County reclassification. Deaths trend remains favorable (unallocated pool is 93 +3). Testing results look more and more like they lag by about a week and are doing 6000+ tests a weekday since April 24.

Updated: May 3 11pm
Pretty exciting day! New cases dropped by ~50% and only 2 deaths, which is the lowest since March 7. I suspect both of these are low to underreporting over the weekend. But when we look at King County, they reported negative 43 new cases for May 2, due to a reclassification of prior cases. They say King County numbers had previously included 154 positive cases that had only been verified by blood antibody tests (at UW I assume) and not the traditional PCR tests. Given the antibody tests have just ramped up recently, my guess is they account for some of the bump over the last week. We’ll have to wait a couple days to see the broader trend as they usually catch up early in the week. The unallocated deaths pool is at 90.

Updated: May 2 4:30pm
We now have an uptrend in new cases over the last four days, which is inauspicious coming right before our Phase 1 “reopening” scheduled to commence on Monday. The positive of this is the uptick in new cases accompanies a significant expansion of testing volume. We’ve seen 4-5000 tests each weekday over about six weeks, but have been over 6000 three times in the last week starting April 24th, and the testing data seems to take about a week to show up on the state’s dashboard. The death trend remains favorable.

Update: May 1 7:45pm
Slight uptick in new cases over the last couple days, but testing also seems to be ramping. April 27th the second highest day of testing after April 24th. Deaths remain in decline but the unallocated pool is at 91 (+3).

Update: April 30 10pm
Groundhog deja vu! New cases remain flat, deaths in decline. The unallocated pool of deaths is down to 88 (-8). Starting to get a sense that it takes about a week for daily tests data to show up. April 24th had the highest number of tests so far which bodes well.

Update: April 29 10pm
Mostly still deja vu. The pool of unallocated deaths has creeped up to 96, which unless they end up being in Feb/Mar, are going to impair our nice downward trend of late. New cases still flat. I think the big debate happening right now is whether to keep things locked down through the summer and try to open schools in the fall, hoping that four more months will reduce the chance of a second wave in the fall, or start to ease sooner.

Update: April 28 7:30pm
Still deja vu. Testing over the last week has recovered to be on par with typical weeks.

Update: April 28 12:30am
Deja deja deja vu. New cases flat with a little downward trend, while deaths continues to trend down. The most interesting new data I’ve seen the is the “excess deaths” analysis by the FT. It suggests the COVID toll is even higher than reported. WA has deaths data through Q1 available for purchase. I am going to try to resist buying it…

Update: April 26 5:45pm
Deja deja vu. New cases remain flat while deaths trend is favorable (in the single digits daily). Unallocated deaths now up to 84 which I suspect is a function of the weekend.

Update: April 25 11:30pm
More of the same. New cases flat trend but yesterday did have the most new cases in a week. Daily deaths declining even faster over the last week. Testing numbers better this past week than the week before, which was lower than the previous four weeks. Hopefully testing limits are moderating.

Update: April 24 8:30pm
New cases flat. Deaths down. Deja vu. Testing remains down with low positive rates which would be more encouraging if there was more testing happening.

Update: April 24 12:30pm
Here are April 22 numbers. Same old same old. New cases flat while death trend remains favorable. Testing numbers trending down.

Update: April 22 6:30pm
Groundhog Day all over again. New cases still plateaued while death trend continues down (lowest daily number since March 18!). Testing continues to slip lower and seems to be bottlenecked. Yesterday, Governor Inslee joined his fellow politicians and announced a content-free plan to reopen (no dates, no milestones, no thresholds), but also sent a letter to the Federal government pleading for test kits. Until we have an ability to scale testing significantly, nothing is happening on the re-opening front. UW IHME’s latest model (and note their models have been quite far off to date), suggests we’re not ready to loosen social distancing restrictions in Washington state until the last week of May.

Update: April 21 6:30pm
Getting to be Groundhog Day here. New cases are have plateaued while deaths trend continues to decline. No retroactive pop from the weekend (starting to think Easter weekend was worse than other weekends for reporting). Test numbers are underwhelming — looks like the last week had less testing than each of the four weeks previous.

Update: April 20 6:30pm
We now have Sunday’s numbers. Our new cases trend has flattened out in terms of both rate of growth and the 7-day average, after declining over most of April (so getting worse). Deaths are maintaining a steady declining trend. We’ll see if the weekend numbers get revised up as they often do. Test numbers remain underwhelming. I have not checked to see how the big chart publishers have adapted to the restatement downwards yesterday by the state.

Update: April 19 6pm
Today’s excitement has the state removing 190 cases that they say were out of state residents. Will be interesting to see how various media outlets that are incorrectly parsing the WA data deal with this. With the restatement, new cases resumes its nice downward trend since the beginning of April and daily deaths continues on its declining trend. But may be seeing some weekend effects on lower numbers. Unallocated deaths at 72 (+2). Testing numbers continue to disappoint and no sign that these are being restated upwards after a couple days.

Update: April 18 6pm
Here is an update with Friday’s numbers. We seeing a small uptick in new cases over the last four days while the deaths trend continues to decline. Unallocated deaths at 70 (+2). Still don’t know whether to believe the state’s testing data. If accurate, it shows a decline in testing over the last week.

Update: April 15 7:30pm
This Seattle Times article does suggest the limited testing is due to a shortage of swabs:

“And this is a huge frustration for all of us,” said the governor. Right now, the state has the ability to analyze as many as 13,000 tests per day. But health officials are only able to conduct about 4,500 tests daily, due to the shortages, he said.

More test swabs and vials and other materials are needed for that, said Inslee. He added the state recently secured about 1 million test swabs that will be coming to the state.

Update: April 15 5:45pm
April’s favorable trends continue as seen below. More interesting, WA just started reporting testing numbers again. Hopefully they lag by a couple days because this week’s numbers are tiny. Will monitor that, as low rates of testing undermine confidence in the favorable trends. The state continues to put deaths they don’t have a date for back in January which does strange things to the numbers. They’re up to 73 parked there.

Update: April 14 9pm
No material changes from yesterday. The big revision of yesterday has been padded a little, with the series now starting at 64 deaths as of January 16. I think they’re putting deaths they can’t allocate at the beginning of the series, which is less misleading than putting them at the end (which is what they had been doing prior to yesterday). Other than those data idiosyncrasies, all trends look favorable. Both cumulative new cases and deaths are visibly topping and the trend line on daily new cases and deaths continues to decline linearly.

Update: April 13 7:45pm
Big restatement from the State, who have had 61 deaths that they have not assigned to specific dates. Today they assigned 60 of them to January 22. Because this is so non-exponential, it is probably a mistake. But it simply shifts the curve upwards and implies a slower rate of propagation. My suspicion has always been that the unallocated deaths would be assigned earlier dates instead of being more recent, but this is too extreme and allocation. We’ll see if they amend it tomorrow.

Update: April 17 6:30pm
Here are Thursday’s numbers. After declining for two weeks, new cases have flattened in the last two days. Deaths up slightly today but the downward trend remains intact. Unallocated deaths have declined slightly to 68. Testing volumes remain disappointing — need to see these ramp to start thinking about reopening.

Update: April 17 11am
I am a little late to updating Wednesday’s numbers. New cases ticked up a little, deaths continue to trend down, and the state’s experiment with allocating all the deaths they did not have a date for to mid January has been reversed. They again have a pool of deaths (now 74) that they do not assign a date to. This means the cumulative deaths number and the daily deaths number again diverge, which can lead to an exaggeration of the numbers if you aren’t paying attention to this detail. The biggest concern is testing volumes which are down if anything.

Update: April 12 7pm
Our April trends continue, with new cases and deaths continuing to decline (both peaked April 3rd). It may be partly due to a lack of weekend reporting, but yesterday was the smallest number of new cases since March 23rd and the smallest number of daily deaths since March 18. I added a daily rate of growth curve to the cumulative cases chart and it has a nice downward trend. The state has also made available day-by-day new case and death time series tagged by county, so I could go recreate the King County time series at this point. Thus far I am resisting that urge.

Update: April 11 5:30pm
Trends of the last week continue. New cases in WA up somewhat but the downward trend of the last ten days continues. Deaths are declining faster. Still no data from WA on total number of tests administered.

Update: April 10 7:30pm
Both new case and deaths continue to trend down in WA. King County reported 19 new deaths today but WA only 9, which underscores this data is flaky, but may give us a sense of how long it takes to show up in WA data. Still no reporting on total tests administered from State or County.

Update: April 9 6:30pm
Little bit of an uptick in new WA cases but trend line for both new cases and deaths remains favorable. WA reports its data in a confusing way, and other sources including FT and NYT are not reading it correctly, thus their charts for WA look more ominous than is actually the case.

Update: April 8 4pm
Updates from Washington State are charted below. Continued flattening of both cases and death curves. The only worry is the State has gone dark on testing numbers, which have been slowing. Would like to see flattening of new cases combined with extensive testing.

Update: April 7 7pm
New set of charts looking at Washington State data (King County has stopped reporting their full time series with all revisions, and stopped reporting testing data). You can start to see the curve flattening for the State, and given the State’s growth rate in cases is higher than King County, we can use the State as the worst case.

Update: April 6 9pm
Nice couple day decline in new cases in both Washington State and King County. We’ll see over next couple days if that is due to weekend underreporting or material progress. Also data emerging that actual cases and fatalities are coming in below what the most dire models have projected in multiple states. This is why the stock market was up big. Will watch that this week. Washington State numbers reflect their latest restatements of the entire history. I can no longer do that for King County.

Update: April 5 5:30pm
Growth, new cases and new deaths charts updated below. King County is not updated because a day after I drill into their numbers, they have changed their reporting (removed total tests administered).

Update: April 4 5pm
I am just going to show the latest headline numbers, as both the state and county continue to revise their historical numbers upwards, which results in an overly alarming spike in the charts for the most recent data. I have dug into the King County numbers and have added a new section for them below.

Update: April 3, 7:30pm
Did not update the charts today. This is the third day in a row that Washington State has revised their entire data series, and the cumulative numbers don’t match the underlying daily numbers. I will try to dig into it this weekend (as if that will be any different than any other day…).

Update: April 2 7:00pm
Washington state has again revised their numbers of new cases and deaths upward. They reported 582 new cases for April 1 and added another 19 to earlier dates. This is after reporting 496 new cases on March 31 plus adding another ~500 to earlier dates. The total deaths number is inconsistent with the daily numbers, but the headline number is 265 deaths, which would be a rise of 58 from yesterday, whereas the daily numbers show a smoother series with 219 total deaths (+7) as of yesterday. I don’t know whether this is a deterioration in the situation or just (more) bad reporting. I suspect bad reporting as the Washington daily reported numbers are lower than the King County reported numbers which seems impossible unless other parts of the state are showing negative numbers. I still have not gone back to try to reconcile updated King County numbers (their numbers had been so good, but they blaming the state for messing them up).

Update: April 1, 7:30pm
Washington State is reporting again, and has updated its data series with material upward revisions all the way back to the outset, which are reflected in the charts below. King County is also reporting again and also has made revisions to their entire data series which are not yet reflected below (because their dashboard is terrible). At this point, the two data series are inconsistent (e.g. King County has more deaths than Washington yesterday), but I believe both are directionally correct. I will probably be unable to resist diving in deeper to the historical changes and the inconsistencies.

New Cases

These are new confirmed cases, which are a function of how broadly testing is occurring. We want to see this chart flatten and then decline.

Weekends tend to report lower numbers and then we see a pop early in the week as they catch up.

New Deaths

These are new deaths which are a backwards looking indicator (infections from 2-3 weeks back). We want to see this chart flatten and then decline.

Note: this uses the headline number from Washington so shows a big spike for April 1-2.

King County Drilldown

Update April 6: the day after I did this drilldown, King County stopped reporting at this level of granularity…

King County has had more systematic reporting from the beginning so I have more confidence in their numbers, though they are revising their historical numbers upwards (by about 4%). King County has 30% of the population of the state, 39% of the confirmed cases, 65% of the deaths, but only 25% of the tests run. At this point, the state has tested a higher percentage of the population (1.15%) than King County (0.97%).

The new cases trend line for King County is promising:

It would be more promising if testing hadn’t plateaued. But the positive rate has remained consistent just barely in the double digit percentages for several weeks (contrast to 30%+ in places like New York). UW is testing beyond King County. They’ve done 48,026 tests (10% positive rate), while King County has 21,838 (13.3% positive) vs. 87,918 for the state (8.6% positive).

Here you can see how King County has revised their cumulative case numbers upwards over a recent four day period on a semi-log scale. By finding more historical cases, they actually flatten the growth curve. The total number of cases grows by about 4%.

ARCHIVED Sept 1

Growth Rate

This chart illustrates both the cumulative number of cases and deaths for both King County and Washington State. By plotting it logarithmically on the vertical axis, we get a good sense of the rate of growth, which is important to monitor for things that spread exponentially. A straight line is a steady rate of growth. A steepening of the slope means the rate of growth is accelerating. A flattening of the slope means the rate of growth is decelerating.

You can contrast our data to the similar charts for different countries, states and regions provided by the FT (who pioneered this visualization) and the NYT (who shamelessly copied the FT without crediting them). Washington looks pretty good compared to almost everywhere else except the Asian countries that have done a great job suppressing the virus. I’m not sure which data these publishers are using given the churn in our underlying numbers. The FT is showing a recent spike for Washington which makes me think they’re adding the most recent headline number and not revising the entire dataset, which would result in a flatter curve.

Washington State

You can see the cumulative confirmed cases curve accelerating as of about mid-June with some higher variance in the daily growth rate.

When we look at daily new cases and a seven-day moving average of daily new cases, we’ve been trending up since mid May and are in unseen territory since mid June.

The cumulative deaths curve:

After a very steady decline driven by some days with no reported deaths that were later revised upwards, the deaths curve has been flat for a while, and not followed new cases on its steep upward climb. Though the upswing in early July might be the start.

Other Good Sources

UW Virology – they are the high volume testing operation in Washington and tweet once a day a graph with how many tests they have done and the rate that are positive. Seeing high volumes of tests with single digit positive rates is very promising. NYC is seeing positive rates of 30%+!

UW IHME – this group at the UW tries to model when COVID-19 will peak in different states (you have to select the state you’re interested in — there is no direct link). While I am skeptical of these models because exponential behavior is so sensitive to very small parameter variations (good 538 piece on why these models are challenging), and a thread on why they are hard and inconsistent with the real world data), there is good data on when various forms of social distancing were implemented and hospital/ICU/ventilator needs and capacities. They also assume social distancing remains in place through the end of May (!). Projected peaks:

Key Washington State Dates

March 6 – Amazon and Microsoft start WFH
March 7 – last day of school for UW, Bush
March 12 – UW starts doing 1000+ tests per day
March 12 – last day of school for Seattle School District
March 17 – bars and restaurants closed
March 23 – Stay at Home order
April 6 – schools canceled for rest of school year
May 29 – protests begin
June 19 – King County to Phase 2
June 26 – masks required everywhere order takes effect

State of Washington Reopening Timeline:

Phase 1 – May 4
Phase 2 – May 25 (earliest expected date)
Phase 3 – June 15 (earliest expected date)
Phase 4 – July 6 (earliest expected date)

It seems we’ve already slipped a week from these dates (as of May 16).

“Re-Opening”/Normalization

National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening – this report from former FDA director Scott Gottlieb (who is exerting more leadership than the vast preponderance of our elected and appointed officials) is getting lots of attention.