Platformonomics TGIF is a weekly roll-up of links, comments on those links, and perhaps a little too much tugging on my favorite threads.
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Reality is starting to reassert itself!
News
Discounting Oracle’s Remaining Performance Obligation
Oracle has now given back more in market cap than it gained from announcing $300 billion of new “remaining performance obligation” from OpenAI. Wall Street has done the Remaining CAPEX Obligation math and gotten concerned:
“This is a completely different business model to what investors prize in cloud services,” said Alex Haissl at Rothschild & Co Redburn. “The deals look fantastic when you look at the revenue figures, but they are very capital intensive so create very little value.”
Finance at Oracle now reports to Larry, so maybe they can finally get aggressive with financial engineering? Good not to have to worry about the SEC.
Can’t wait to hear the new pump at Oracle’s next quarterly earnings call!
A Platformonomics reader who went short Oracle bought me lunch yesterday. Who says blogging doesn’t pay?
Previous:
CAPEX vs. HyperCAPEX: Oracle Edition, They Still Don’t Have the CAPEX: Oracle, They Still Don’t Have the Margins: Oracle Edition, They Don’t Have the Margins, They Don’t Have the Money, They Don’t Have the Money: Oracle and Tik Tok, Remaining CAPEX Obligation, Why Can’t Oracle Afford Data Centers?, Why Can’t Oracle Build Data Centers?, Oracle Still Can’t Build Data Centers, Oracle’s Data Center Difficulties, Oracle’s Data Center Difficulties: FY25 Q1, Oracle’s Data Center Difficulties: FY25 Q2, ClownWatch™: Oracle FY25 Q3, Why Can’t Oracle Build Data Centers? FY25 Q4 Edition, Words are Cheap, CAPEX is Expensive: Oracle Edition, Why Can’t Oracle Build Data Centers? (Or Subcontract Them?), Follow the CAPEX: The Clown Car Race Checkered Flag, Stargate Struggles to Get Out of Gate, Stargate: “Science fiction, just like the movie it is named after”, CAPEX Clues: The B Word, And You Thought Softbank Was the Dumb Money, Follow the CAPEX: Cloud Table Stakes 2024 Retrospective, Stargate: So Many Mouths to Feed, CAPEX Clues: Softbank Needs More Cash, Stargate: $5 Trillion and Counting, Stargate: A New Hope?
Does Anthropic Have the Money?
Pikers.
A tiny fraction of OpenAI’s announced plans (dreams?), so they might actually have/be able to get the money?
Anthropic has a lot of crazy views but financially they’re the far more responsible frontier lab. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Note Anthropic’s partnership is with Fluidstack who are the first neocloud to get Google TPUs.
Actual Domain Knowledge?
“We’ve got the gas,” Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said…
Could energy producers be better at producing energy at scale than crypto bros or database developers?
The new data center map overlaps a lot with the natural gas map.
Private Equity Buys (Part of) Software Company from Private Equity: Avalara
Private equity company Vista Equity Partners sells equity in the company to the private credit arm (?) of Blackrock to “purchase shares from existing shareholders”.
Can only be great for Avalara customers!
Previous:
Private Equity Buys Software Company from Private Equity: Nexthink, Private Equity Buys Software Company from Private Equity: AOL, Private Equity Buys Software Company from Private Equity: Solar Winds, rivate Equity Buys Software Company from Private Equity: Acronis, Private Equity Buys Software Company from Private Equity: Avetta, Software Migration Alerts for Private Equity Owned Companies